TBL beat MTL 4–3 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 2.9, TBL 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Tyler Motte scored short-handed at 10:18 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 19% to 50%. Andrei Vasilevskiy saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:27 |  MTL | Joel Armia from Kaiden Guhle, Alex Newhook | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 14:34 | MTL | Jake Evans from Brendan Gallagher | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 7:44 |  TBL | Brayden Point from Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov | 2–1 | 17% → 32% |
| P2 15:49 | TBL | Anthony Cirelli from Brandon Hagel | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 6:23 | MTL | Josh Anderson from Cole Caufield, Arber Xhekaj | 3–2 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 10:18 | TBL | Tyler MotteSH unassisted | 3–3 | 19% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Evans C | 16:54 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.10 | +0.48 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 15:49 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.21 | +0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | |
| David Savard D | 26:50 | +0.41 | +0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 13:15 | +0.17 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 21:32 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.05 | −0.57 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.84 | |
| Jordan Harris D | 18:03 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 16:36 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Joel Armia R | 14:50 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.22 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | |
| Tanner Pearson L | 13:09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 14:30 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 28:06 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 23:08 | −0.12 | +0.18 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.30 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 22:28 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Colin White C | 8:55 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 16:19 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.16 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Jesse Ylonen R | 10:21 | −0.48 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | ||
| Joshua Roy R | 12:56 | −0.62 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 20:54 | −0.76 | −0.05 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.44 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cayden Primeau G | 65:00 | −0.97 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Hedman D | 29:19 | +1.35 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +1.06 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 22:38 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.13 | +0.60 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Motte C | 12:10 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.19 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 20:55 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.05 | −0.35 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.75 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 16:07 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 23:10 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.48 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.35 | |
| Max Crozier D | 14:37 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 12:53 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 20:30 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 18:09 | −0.10 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 15:41 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 11:18 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 10:43 | −0.20 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 12:02 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 15:49 | −0.32 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 22:40 | 1 | −0.59 | +0.11 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 | |
| Michael Eyssimont C | 13:17 | −0.59 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 23:05 | 1 | −0.75 | −0.01 | −0.36 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 64:32 | +1.67 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.