BUF beat TBL 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (BUF 1.9, TBL 2.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Rasmus Dahlin scored on the power play at 1:42 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 50% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:12 | TBL | Brayden PointPP from Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 10:59 |  BUF | Alex Tuch unassisted | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 17:18 | TBL | Mitchell Chaffee from Erik Cernak, Anthony Cirelli | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 11:33 | BUF | Tage ThompsonPP from Rasmus Dahlin | 2–2 | 17% → 48% |
| OT 1:42 | BUF | Rasmus DahlinPP from Casey Mittelstadt, Jordan Greenway | 3–2 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Tuch R | 17:34 | 1 | +1.10 | +0.07 | +0.67 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.37 | −0.02 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 27:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.12 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tage Thompson C | 17:23 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.10 | +0.44 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Owen Power D | 24:18 | +0.12 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:25 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 10:45 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 16:28 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 16:18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johnson D | 14:40 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 11:57 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 15:28 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 18:59 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 13:28 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:57 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 20:21 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 13:13 | −0.29 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 12:46 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 18:15 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.07 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 61:42 | −0.02 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 12:38 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.03 | +0.77 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 18:36 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.14 | +0.64 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Tyler Motte C | 14:24 | +0.17 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 22:11 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 20:10 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 21:01 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 17:11 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Crozier D | 9:27 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 13:34 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 16:29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 15:52 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 14:52 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 13:29 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 14:55 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 11:16 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 24:11 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.04 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 18:50 | −0.31 | −0.05 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 23:21 | 1 | −0.59 | −0.27 | −0.54 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 61:09 | −0.63 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.