TBL beat NJD 4–1. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Victor Hedman scored at 1:27 of the second, moving TBL’s win probability from 47% to 66%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:27 | TBL | Victor Hedman from Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 4:15 | TBL | Brayden Point from Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman | 2–0 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 6:01 |  NJD | Tyler ToffoliPP from Jack Hughes, Luke Hughes | 2–1 | 18% → 33% |
| P3 9:38 | TBL | Brandon Hagel from Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov | 3–1 | 80% → 95% |
| P3 18:25 | TBL | Nikita KucherovEN from Brandon Hagel | 4–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel L | 23:46 | 1 | 2 | +0.89 | +0.09 | +0.62 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Victor Hedman D | 25:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.71 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brayden Point C | 19:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.13 | +0.30 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Max Crozier D | 10:52 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 14:41 | +0.14 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 18:48 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 13:55 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 14:21 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 18:08 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 14:01 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 13:26 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 16:57 | −0.13 | +0.18 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 21:27 | 1 | 3 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.26 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Conor Sheary L | 10:59 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitchell Chaffee R | 14:12 | −0.20 | +0.11 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 12:24 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 13:52 | −0.31 | +0.05 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 15:46 | −0.34 | −0.06 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson G | 74:52 | +0.60 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Toffoli C | 15:45 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.26 | +0.54 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Colin Miller D | 17:40 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 20:37 | +0.17 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 19:05 | +0.15 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 12:40 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 13:03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Brian Halonen L | 9:47 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| John Marino D | 19:08 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 16:52 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 14:49 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 12:02 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 18:40 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 19:07 | −0.27 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 16:20 | −0.28 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 12:00 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 20:02 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 14:19 | −0.38 | −0.02 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 22:48 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid G | 59:16 | −0.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.