TBL beat MIN 7–3. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Anthony Cirelli scored on the power play at 0:16 of the second, moving TBL’s win probability from 54% to 72%. Filip Gustavsson allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:17 | MIN | Joel Eriksson Ek from Brock Faber, Jake Middleton | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 6:12 |  TBL | Victor Hedman from Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 0:16 | TBL | Anthony CirelliPP from Brayden Point, Victor Hedman | 1–2 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 3:20 | TBL | Waltteri Merela from Conor Sheary, Nick Perbix | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 10:52 | MIN | Marco Rossi from Jake Middleton, Kirill Kaprizov | 2–3 | 11% → 26% |
| P2 12:41 | TBL | Brayden Point from Nikita Kucherov | 2–4 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 19:45 | MIN | Jake Middleton from Marco Rossi, Mats Zuccarello | 3–4 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 1:09 | TBL | Steven StamkosPP from Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman | 3–5 | 78% → 92% |
| P3 6:59 | TBL | Michael EyssimontPP from Anthony Cirelli, Darren Raddysh | 3–6 | 95% → 99% |
| P3 17:52 | TBL | Anthony Cirelli from Brandon Hagel, Victor Hedman | 3–7 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Middleton D | 19:19 | 1 | 2 | +0.65 | −0.03 | +0.69 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Marco Rossi C | 17:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.04 | +0.48 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 16:49 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.11 | −0.23 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Daemon Hunt D | 15:47 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Mermis D | 15:06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 15:15 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.13 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 9:02 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 12:43 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 22:47 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 14:03 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 13:46 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 23:38 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 16:41 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 15:08 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 13:34 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 19:52 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 12:26 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 21:51 | 1 | −0.50 | +0.07 | −0.43 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 60:00 | −2.91 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Cirelli C | 19:22 | 2 | 1 | +1.50 | −0.03 | +1.46 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:24 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.15 | +0.71 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 24:05 | 1 | 3 | +0.91 | +0.10 | +0.75 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Waltteri Merela C | 7:26 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.02 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Michael Eyssimont C | 14:09 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.00 | +0.68 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brayden Point C | 20:09 | 1 | 2 | +0.33 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Darren Raddysh D | 20:11 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Lilleberg D | 19:03 | +0.02 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 11:11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 12:20 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 17:23 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Max Crozier D | 16:12 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 7:49 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 20:05 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 16:53 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.32 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 13:30 | −0.39 | +0.03 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 16:23 | −0.42 | −0.05 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 20:25 | 3 | −0.60 | +0.14 | −0.83 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | +0.28 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.