CHI beat SJS 2–1 in a shootout. CHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 4.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan Carpenter scored at 5:13 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 20% to 48%. Petr Mrazek saved 6.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:41 | CHI | Cole GuttmanPP from Ryan Donato, Kevin Korchinski | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P3 5:13 | SJS | Ryan Carpenter from Justin Bailey, Mike Hoffman | 1–1 | 20% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Labanc R | 7:53 | +0.81 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.84 | ||
| Justin Bailey R | 10:40 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jan Rutta D | 22:41 | +0.21 | +0.28 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 12:42 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.05 | +0.30 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Burroughs D | 16:01 | +0.09 | +0.29 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nikita Okhotiuk D | 17:12 | +0.07 | +0.34 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 17:48 | +0.00 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Scott Sabourin R | 6:36 | −0.02 | +0.14 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 16:43 | −0.11 | +0.17 | −0.06 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 25:47 | −0.12 | +0.23 | −0.06 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 14:43 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.33 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.44 | |
| Henry Thrun D | 22:46 | −0.27 | +0.23 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 16:31 | −0.40 | +0.20 | −0.07 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.44 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 23:17 | −0.45 | +0.25 | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.44 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 21:25 | −0.50 | +0.32 | −0.14 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 15:39 | −0.60 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | ||
| William Eklund L | 21:46 | −0.63 | +0.09 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.44 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 21:21 | −0.98 | +0.31 | −0.69 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 64:54 | +3.94 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rem Pitlick C | 20:52 | +0.56 | +0.07 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.75 | ||
| Boris Katchouk L | 11:26 | +0.54 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +1.06 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 8:46 | −0.03 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jarred Tinordi D | 16:58 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 21:49 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | −0.30 | ||
| Jaycob Megna D | 21:18 | −0.31 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 12:10 | −0.33 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Joey Anderson R | 14:37 | −0.34 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 27:21 | −0.34 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kevin Korchinski D | 20:59 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.35 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 14:52 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.14 | −0.23 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.35 | |
| Colin Blackwell C | 16:08 | −0.43 | −0.31 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 29:27 | −0.47 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Lukas Reichel L | 13:54 | −0.48 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.44 | ||
| Cole Guttman C | 12:59 | 1 | −0.57 | −0.17 | +0.29 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.44 | |
| Jason Dickinson C | 19:45 | −0.58 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.44 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 21:37 | −0.61 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.44 | ||
| Zachary Sanford L | 10:17 | −0.71 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.44 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 65:00 | +6.87 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.