TBL beat NJD 4–3 in overtime. TBL lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Darren Raddysh scored at 1:52 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Vitek Vanecek allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:42 | NJD | Dawson Mercer from Erik Haula, Colin Miller | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 12:35 |  TBL | Luke Glendening from Nick Perbix, Austin Watson | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 18:22 | TBL | Luke GlendeningSH unassisted | 1–2 | 52% → 71% |
| P2 10:34 | TBL | Brayden PointPP from Nikita Kucherov, Nick Perbix | 1–3 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 16:54 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from John Marino, Tyler Toffoli | 2–3 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 3:53 | NJD | Nathan Bastian unassisted | 3–3 | 21% → 48% |
| OT 1:52 | TBL | Darren Raddysh from Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Bastian R | 9:51 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.01 | +0.70 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 22:22 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.20 | +0.46 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 19:30 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.16 | +0.12 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 18:52 | +0.28 | +0.29 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 23:37 | +0.21 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 22:13 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Hughes D | 20:38 | +0.04 | +0.18 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 15:17 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Bowers C | 7:58 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 17:46 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 16:24 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 21:24 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.20 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Max Willman C | 7:40 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 16:05 | −0.15 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 13:52 | −0.15 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 21:32 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.26 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Alexander Holtz R | 10:09 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 12:26 | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 61:52 | −1.84 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Glendening C | 7:43 | 2 | +1.71 | −0.01 | +1.68 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Darren Raddysh D | 25:13 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.24 | +0.82 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 22:17 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.13 | +0.44 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Michael Eyssimont C | 10:19 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 10:11 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 7:58 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 17:45 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 14:56 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 5:38 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 22:35 | 2 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Motte C | 11:11 | −0.06 | +0.09 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Gage Goncalves C | 9:00 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 21:18 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 22:44 | −0.29 | −0.09 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 21:51 | −0.30 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 27:54 | −0.36 | −0.24 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 21:56 | 2 | −0.47 | −0.17 | −0.34 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 21:30 | −0.51 | −0.30 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 61:29 | −0.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.