TBL beat LAK 3–2 in overtime. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 1.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nick Perbix scored at 2:03 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 11:31 |  LAK | Phillip Danault from Jordan Spence, Trevor Moore | 1–0 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 14:30 | LAK | Matt Roy from Kevin Fiala, Trevor Moore | 2–0 | 70% → 86% |
| P3 12:37 |  TBL | Tyler Motte from Michael Eyssimont | 2–1 | 3% → 17% |
| P3 15:39 | TBL | Brandon Hagel from Nick Perbix, Emil Lilleberg | 2–2 | 12% → 51% |
| OT 2:03 | TBL | Nick Perbix from Brandon Hagel | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Roy D | 23:50 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.23 | +0.67 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 18:44 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.12 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Andreas Englund D | 10:55 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 13:01 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 22:53 | −0.06 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 24:16 | −0.07 | +0.16 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arthur Kaliyev R | 10:19 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 18:04 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.15 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 17:50 | −0.13 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 13:33 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinton Byfield R | 15:12 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Laferriere R | 9:36 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 11:46 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 12:50 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Moore L | 19:16 | 2 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 18:08 | −0.35 | −0.13 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 14:32 | −0.37 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 25:24 | −0.47 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 62:03 | +0.02 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel L | 19:48 | 1 | 1 | +1.12 | +0.26 | +0.68 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Nick Perbix D | 17:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.28 | +0.66 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Motte C | 11:40 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.07 | +0.69 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 19:34 | +0.29 | +0.36 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 27:39 | +0.10 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Lilleberg D | 16:36 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Austin Watson L | 8:26 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 17:25 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 9:18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 15:59 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 26:02 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 23:12 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alex Barré-Boulet C | 8:25 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 20:30 | −0.18 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 12:10 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 16:15 | −0.31 | +0.05 | −0.34 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 21:24 | −0.32 | +0.06 | −0.58 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 9:54 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 62:03 | −0.30 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.