TBL beat MTL 4–3. TBL lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Calvin de Haan scored at 7:49 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 81%. Samuel Montembeault allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:58 | MTL | Cole Caufield unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 11:59 | MTL | Johnathan Kovacevic from Samuel Montembeault | 2–0 | 69% → 85% |
| P2 14:01 | TBL | Brayden Point from Nick Paul, Brandon Hagel | 2–1 | 14% → 30% |
| P2 17:36 | TBL | Austin Watson from Victor Hedman, Nick Perbix | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 7:49 | TBL | Calvin de Haan from Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos | 2–3 | 52% → 81% |
| P3 14:54 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Victor Hedman, Anthony Cirelli | 2–4 | 88% → 99% |
| P3 17:55 | MTL | Nick SuzukiPP from Juraj Slafkovský, Mike Matheson | 3–4 | 0% → 6% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 11:23 | 1 | +0.92 | −0.01 | +0.94 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 23:33 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.09 | +0.81 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 23:11 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.10 | +0.43 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jake Evans C | 18:07 | +0.26 | +0.19 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 4:54 | +0.08 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 15:42 | +0.07 | +0.15 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 14:35 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 13:02 | +0.05 | +0.13 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitchell Stephens C | 10:33 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jesse Ylonen R | 12:08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 22:10 | −0.00 | +0.33 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 15:39 | −0.05 | +0.14 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 16:37 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 25:27 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 20:42 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 20:07 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 11:04 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 16:42 | −0.37 | +0.07 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 58:24 | −2.20 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Watson L | 6:06 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.07 | +0.92 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 20:51 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.63 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Calvin de Haan D | 18:57 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.03 | +0.74 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 25:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.36 | +0.73 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Brandon Hagel L | 21:09 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.25 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 6:39 | +0.06 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 24:30 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 25:15 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Eyssimont C | 8:49 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Barré-Boulet C | 10:47 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 20:02 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Haydn Fleury D | 9:27 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 11:11 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 10:07 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 7:25 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 20:29 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 29:52 | 2 | −0.44 | −0.11 | −0.36 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 21:19 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.27 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson G | 60:00 | −0.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.