TBL beat VGK 5–4. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nick Paul scored at 18:47 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 50% to 95%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:40 | VGK | Jonathan Marchessault from Paul Cotter, Brayden McNabb | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 16:58 | VGK | Ivan Barbashev from Mark Stone, Jack Eichel | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 8:25 |  TBL | Alex Barré-Boulet from Victor Hedman, Conor Sheary | 2–1 | 16% → 32% |
| P2 15:55 | TBL | Nikita KucherovPP from Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman | 2–2 | 34% → 54% |
| P2 16:28 | TBL | Brayden PointPP from Nick Paul, Nikita Kucherov | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 18:50 | TBL | Brayden Point from Nick Paul, Nikita Kucherov | 2–4 | 77% → 91% |
| P3 5:31 | VGK | Jonathan MarchessaultPP from William Karlsson, Jack Eichel | 3–4 | 6% → 20% |
| P3 9:44 | VGK | Paul Cotter from Brayden McNabb, Ben Hutton | 4–4 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 18:47 | TBL | Nick Paul from Victor Hedman, Brayden Point | 4–5 | 50% → 95% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 16:58 | 2 | +1.45 | +0.05 | +1.44 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 11:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.17 | +0.62 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 13:12 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.02 | +0.75 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 15:17 | +0.13 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:28 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 13:16 | +0.08 | +0.25 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 11:42 | −0.03 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 19:02 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 21:29 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 11:59 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 18:24 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.16 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 15:52 | −0.17 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 17:17 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.20 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 11:38 | −0.26 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 11:12 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 19:13 | −0.33 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 22:44 | −0.36 | −0.06 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 22:08 | 2 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.50 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jiri Patera G | 59:07 | −0.93 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point C | 17:26 | 2 | 1 | +1.94 | +0.30 | +1.40 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 |
| Nick Paul L | 17:53 | 1 | 2 | +1.08 | +0.28 | +0.87 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 18:36 | 1 | 2 | +0.57 | +0.32 | +0.35 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Alex Barré-Boulet C | 7:51 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.05 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 16:48 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 20:35 | +0.17 | +0.04 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.37 | −0.04 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 7:12 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 20:43 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 16:39 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 11:29 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 10:17 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 20:54 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.27 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 14:02 | −0.22 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 19:27 | −0.31 | −0.10 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 23:36 | 3 | −0.35 | +0.14 | −0.34 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Haydn Fleury D | 19:56 | −0.38 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 12:33 | −0.65 | −0.15 | −0.47 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 18:29 | −0.75 | −0.07 | −0.49 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | −0.75 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.