NSH beat TBL 5–1. Expected goals were close to even (TBL 2.8, NSH 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Filip Forsberg scored on the power play at 2:37 of the second, moving NSH’s win probability from 54% to 72%. Juuse Saros saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:32 | TBL | Alex Barré-Boulet from Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 17:14 |  NSH | Juuso ParssinenPP from Philip Tomasino, Ryan McDonagh | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 2:37 | NSH | Filip ForsbergPP from Roman Josi, Gustav Nyquist | 1–2 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 4:32 | NSH | Ryan McDonagh unassisted | 1–3 | 72% → 87% |
| P3 6:11 | NSH | Roman Josi from Cole Smith | 1–4 | 94% → 99% |
| P3 13:13 | NSH | Yakov TreninEN from Kiefer Sherwood | 1–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Barré-Boulet C | 12:40 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.05 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 20:10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.08 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 14:02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 14:44 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 14:35 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 15:46 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 19:20 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 8:29 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 23:41 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 17:07 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 15:36 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 6:48 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 24:32 | −0.26 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 11:11 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 23:26 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.56 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 16:26 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.05 | −0.53 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.07 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 18:26 | −0.34 | −0.05 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 20:45 | −0.36 | −0.07 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson G | 58:25 | −1.34 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan McDonagh D | 18:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.11 | +0.80 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Juuso Parssinen C | 14:07 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.02 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Roman Josi D | 20:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.09 | +0.65 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Filip Forsberg L | 16:05 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.02 | +0.50 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 14:26 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.08 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 16:00 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Smith L | 13:04 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tommy Novak C | 12:55 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 16:15 | −0.02 | +0.14 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 18:20 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 22:19 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 12:42 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 17:41 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Tomasino C | 13:58 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 19:55 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 14:40 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 16:30 | −0.35 | +0.06 | −0.42 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 14:42 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 60:00 | +1.96 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.