WSH beat LAK 2–1. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Connor McMichael scored at 18:30 of the second, moving WSH’s win probability from 47% to 72%. Charlie Lindgren saved 5.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:04 |  LAK | Arthur Kaliyev from Andreas Englund, Jordan Spence | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 12:12 | WSH | Anthony Mantha from Connor McMichael, Aliaksei Protas | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 18:30 | WSH | Connor McMichael from Anthony Mantha, Aliaksei Protas | 2–1 | 47% → 72% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McMichael L | 14:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.26 | +0.39 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Anthony Mantha R | 11:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.26 | +0.08 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 12:52 | 2 | +0.43 | +0.43 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 20:01 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 17:16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 17:30 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 23:38 | −0.11 | +0.23 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 17:00 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 14:12 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 13:01 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Phillips R | 12:07 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 16:10 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 20:47 | −0.26 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 16:18 | −0.27 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 20:47 | −0.38 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 15:34 | −0.42 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 17:26 | −0.46 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 13:37 | −0.63 | −0.35 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 60:00 | +5.36 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Kaliyev R | 12:31 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.05 | +0.32 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Englund D | 12:21 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikey Anderson D | 18:19 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 19:44 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 27:16 | −0.03 | +0.35 | −0.12 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 15:31 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 18:23 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 9:25 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 17:29 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Alex Laferriere R | 12:40 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaret Anderson-Dolan C | 9:56 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 19:09 | −0.13 | +0.25 | −0.17 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 19:57 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 18:58 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 18:30 | −0.18 | +0.27 | −0.46 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 14:46 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 19:26 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinton Byfield R | 18:22 | −0.37 | +0.21 | −0.43 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 57:17 | +0.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.