WPG beat TBL 3–2 in overtime. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Adam Lowry scored at 1:39 of overtime, moving WPG’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Connor Hellebuyck saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:29 |  WPG | Josh Morrissey from Dylan DeMelo, Nikolaj Ehlers | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 13:06 | WPG | Mark ScheifelePP from Josh Morrissey, Cole Perfetti | 2–0 | 65% → 78% |
| P1 18:06 |  TBL | Steven StamkosPP from Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman | 2–1 | 21% → 35% |
| P2 6:13 | TBL | Brayden Point from Brandon Hagel | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| OT 1:39 | WPG | Adam Lowry from Neal Pionk, Vladislav Namestnikov | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Lowry C | 17:18 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.26 | +0.69 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 23:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.32 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 16:17 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 21:56 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.32 | +0.42 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby L | 6:39 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 15:57 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.12 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| David Gustafsson C | 7:15 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 17:49 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 22:14 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 22:16 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.26 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 16:55 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 14:21 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 14:00 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 8:09 | −0.20 | +0.08 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 23:03 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Iafallo L | 18:26 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 17:47 | 1 | −0.62 | −0.08 | −0.54 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 20:34 | −0.67 | −0.39 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 61:39 | +1.15 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point C | 19:18 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.12 | +0.15 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 22:04 | +0.25 | +0.24 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 17:21 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.14 | +0.49 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Tanner Jeannot L | 13:18 | +0.15 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 14:44 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 21:00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 23:47 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 15:40 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 14:39 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 15:55 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 8:29 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 24:00 | −0.09 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 6:38 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Koepke L | 6:39 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 17:09 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 18:47 | −0.20 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 20:51 | 1 | −0.35 | +0.17 | −0.51 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 21:00 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.23 | −0.70 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson G | 61:39 | −0.28 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.