TBL beat EDM 6–4. TBL lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 4.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Luke Glendening scored at 10:07 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 83%. Stuart Skinner allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:39 | EDM | Derek RyanSH from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Cody Ceci | 1–0 | 46% → 62% |
| P1 8:31 | EDM | James Hamblin unassisted | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 19:09 |  TBL | Nikita KucherovPP from Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point | 2–1 | 21% → 35% |
| P2 12:56 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Mikhail Sergachev, Darren Raddysh | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 15:55 | EDM | Derek Ryan from Warren Foegele, Mattias Ekholm | 3–2 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 3:54 | TBL | Tanner Jeannot from Michael Eyssimont, Mikhail Sergachev | 3–3 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 8:04 | EDM | Evan Bouchard from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 4–3 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 9:28 | TBL | Steven StamkosPP from Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point | 4–4 | 21% → 52% |
| P3 10:07 | TBL | Luke Glendening from Cole Koepke, Darren Raddysh | 4–5 | 52% → 83% |
| P3 19:05 | TBL | Mikhail SergachevEN from Nick Paul | 4–6 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Ryan C | 10:10 | 2 | +1.34 | +0.10 | +1.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| James Hamblin L | 7:02 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.04 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 23:30 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.02 | +0.44 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 23:00 | +0.32 | +0.13 | −0.23 | +0.14 | −0.02 | +0.37 | −0.07 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 10:24 | +0.20 | +0.25 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 14:47 | +0.17 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 11:48 | +0.13 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 24:21 | +0.02 | +0.17 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 6:28 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 23:15 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.19 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 15:12 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 20:34 | 2 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 20:12 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 18:49 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.13 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 12:53 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Gagner C | 10:03 | −0.39 | −0.09 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 21:52 | −0.57 | +0.03 | −0.41 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 17:50 | −0.62 | +0.15 | −0.75 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 59:00 | −2.34 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov R | 22:36 | 2 | 1 | +1.38 | +0.01 | +1.13 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Luke Glendening C | 15:52 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tanner Jeannot L | 11:24 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.23 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 13:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.10 | +0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Cole Koepke L | 8:44 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 18:06 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Darren Raddysh D | 16:49 | 2 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calvin de Haan D | 15:15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 19:25 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alex Barré-Boulet C | 6:57 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 6:46 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 20:18 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 23:01 | 1 | 2 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Motte C | 16:44 | −0.25 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 14:44 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 20:02 | 2 | −0.28 | −0.13 | −0.39 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Michael Eyssimont C | 12:57 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.30 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 24:31 | −0.49 | −0.25 | −0.09 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson G | 60:00 | +0.63 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.