CGY beat NSH 4–2. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Blake Coleman scored at 6:24 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 52% to 80%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:35 | NSH | Michael McCarron from Liam Foudy, Marc Del Gaizo | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:34 | NSH | Kiefer Sherwood from Luke Evangelista, Tommy Novak | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 15:06 |  CGY | Dillon Dube from Nikita Zadorov, Nick DeSimone | 2–1 | 13% → 30% |
| P3 4:45 | CGY | Noah Hanifin from Yegor Sharangovich, Chris Tanev | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 6:24 | CGY | Blake Coleman from Nazem Kadri, Nick DeSimone | 2–3 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 18:21 | CGY | Nazem KadriEN from Yegor Sharangovich, Connor Zary | 2–4 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Foudy C | 10:40 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.21 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 10:09 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.16 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Marc Del Gaizo D | 15:37 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Evangelista R | 16:00 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Smith L | 12:34 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 15:18 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 20:02 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 17:55 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 20:20 | −0.18 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 14:47 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 20:57 | −0.21 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 17:47 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 13:34 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.18 | +0.18 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 15:46 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 12:35 | −0.37 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 18:29 | −0.38 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 16:56 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.31 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roman Josi D | 26:34 | −0.67 | −0.36 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 58:00 | −0.05 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:09 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.26 | +0.40 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dillon Dube C | 12:47 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.07 | +0.32 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 18:42 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.18 | +0.32 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.25 | −0.48 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.10 |
| Chris Tanev D | 19:31 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick DeSimone D | 11:50 | 2 | +0.15 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 23:27 | +0.08 | +0.18 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 17:55 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.24 | −0.26 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 25:00 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 16:26 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Pospisil C | 12:29 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 5:41 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 18:56 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.25 | −0.16 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 22:01 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Walker Duehr R | 5:52 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 14:24 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 20:32 | −0.12 | +0.29 | −0.25 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Adam Ruzicka C | 11:33 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 59:42 | −0.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.