TBL beat CAR 3–0. TBL lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brayden Point scored on the power play at 19:06 of the first, moving TBL’s win probability from 54% to 71%. Jonas Johansson saved 2.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:06 | TBL | Brayden PointPP from Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 17:51 | TBL | Alex Barré-Boulet from Darren Raddysh, Brayden Point | 0–2 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 17:04 | TBL | Nick Paul from Brandon Hagel, Mikhail Sergachev | 0–3 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Fast R | 12:00 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:49 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 13:03 | +0.08 | +0.14 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 15:31 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 17:42 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 21:53 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 18:47 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 14:11 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 9:22 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 22:22 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 18:53 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 15:02 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 12:29 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 16:50 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:05 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Lemieux L | 6:36 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 13:58 | −0.45 | −0.03 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 20:19 | −0.47 | −0.03 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 58:54 | −0.81 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Paul L | 13:36 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.03 | +0.65 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brayden Point C | 18:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.04 | +0.61 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Alex Barré-Boulet C | 11:11 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.04 | +0.58 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Raddysh D | 18:51 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Eyssimont C | 9:09 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 18:48 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 17:50 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 16:13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 12:19 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 9:26 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 18:24 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 21:50 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 15:09 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 15:14 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 22:17 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.21 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Waltteri Merela C | 12:37 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 22:58 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 16:37 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson G | 60:00 | +2.94 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.