BUF beat TBL 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (TBL 3.0, BUF 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Dylan Cozens scored at 1:46 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:57 |  BUF | Zemgus Girgensons from Tyson Jost, Mattias Samuelsson | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 15:28 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from Owen Power, Alex Tuch | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P2 17:58 | TBL | Brandon Hagel from Anthony Cirelli, Tanner Jeannot | 1–2 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 19:53 | TBL | Brandon HagelPP from Brayden Point | 2–2 | 3% → 49% |
| OT 1:46 | BUF | Dylan Cozens from Jordan Greenway, Rasmus Dahlin | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel L | 19:54 | 2 | +1.50 | +0.23 | +1.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 18:02 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 25:57 | +0.21 | +0.18 | −0.23 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 28:19 | +0.16 | +0.24 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 5:04 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 17:57 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Waltteri Merela C | 5:49 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 11:37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 14:44 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 9:03 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 15:38 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 10:34 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 12:27 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 26:26 | −0.27 | −0.16 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 23:06 | −0.28 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Barré-Boulet C | 16:57 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 26:26 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.47 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 12:53 | −0.50 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson G | 60:11 | −0.43 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 9:11 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.05 | +0.71 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 11:36 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.11 | +0.50 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 18:27 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.12 | +0.40 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 16:58 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.23 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 15:45 | +0.18 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 18:00 | +0.11 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 14:30 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 17:45 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 17:36 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 10:24 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 12:33 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 15:00 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 17:45 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 11:24 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Owen Power D | 22:51 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:54 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.04 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 19:48 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.17 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 21:51 | −0.59 | −0.14 | −0.46 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devon Levi G | 61:46 | +0.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.