OTT beat CAR 3–2. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Claude Giroux scored at 9:37 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 52% to 83%. Mads Sogaard saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:51 | OTT | Claude Giroux from Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 17:26 | OTT | Tim Stützle from Claude Giroux, Brady Tkachuk | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 15:30 | CAR | Brett Pesce from Martin Necas, Brady Skjei | 1–2 | 10% → 25% |
| P3 2:23 | CAR | Brent BurnsPP from Seth Jarvis, Martin Necas | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 9:37 | OTT | Claude Giroux from Shane Pinto, Erik Brannstrom | 2–3 | 52% → 83% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Necas C | 20:08 | 2 | +0.61 | +0.27 | −0.08 | +0.27 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Brent Burns D | 24:58 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.07 | +0.33 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 19:36 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.15 | +0.40 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 16:56 | +0.12 | +0.36 | −0.40 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 14:40 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 12:26 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 13:00 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 8:40 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 5:34 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 19:03 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.36 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 22:11 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Drury C | 8:59 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 19:13 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 13:39 | −0.22 | +0.21 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.38 | +0.02 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 19:17 | −0.25 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 15:59 | −0.28 | +0.20 | −0.56 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 11:41 | −0.43 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 22:36 | −0.66 | +0.14 | −0.34 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.38 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 57:24 | −0.64 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Giroux R | 21:17 | 2 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.21 | +0.58 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Shane Pinto C | 18:22 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Kastelic C | 10:03 | +0.10 | +0.18 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 9:29 | +0.08 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 16:50 | +0.05 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 16:16 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 29:09 | +0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 13:15 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 23:10 | 1 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.15 | +0.24 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.38 | +0.01 |
| Egor Sokolov L | 5:52 | −0.02 | +0.13 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Brown C | 14:14 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 22:17 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Gambrell C | 9:02 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 5:24 | −0.16 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 16:14 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 18:27 | 2 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.18 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Artem Zub D | 17:42 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 21:58 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.33 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mads Sogaard G | 59:55 | +2.33 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.