NJD beat TBL 5–2. NJD also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nico Hischier scored at 12:02 of the second, moving NJD’s win probability from 47% to 69%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:26 |  TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Steven Stamkos | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P2 6:30 | TBL | Alex Killorn from Erik Cernak, Anthony Cirelli | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 6:39 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from Nico Hischier, Damon Severson | 1–2 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 9:22 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from Jonas Siegenthaler, Dougie Hamilton | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 12:02 | NJD | Nico Hischier from Dougie Hamilton | 3–2 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 9:51 | NJD | Nolan Foote from Yegor Sharangovich, Kevin Bahl | 4–2 | 80% → 95% |
| P3 19:48 | NJD | Jesper BrattEN from Timo Meier | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Bratt L | 13:43 | 3 | +1.67 | +0.09 | +1.56 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nolan Foote L | 9:03 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.16 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 18:28 | 1 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.08 | +0.84 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| Kevin Bahl D | 18:58 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.17 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 22:30 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.23 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 20:04 | +0.06 | +0.12 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 19:55 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 19:00 | −0.02 | +0.14 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 15:51 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.19 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 13:46 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.12 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McLeod C | 12:03 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 12:20 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 12:28 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 16:02 | −0.12 | +0.18 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 12:57 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| John Marino D | 21:14 | −0.36 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 13:48 | 1 | −0.46 | +0.09 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Damon Severson D | 19:54 | 1 | −0.47 | +0.16 | −0.57 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 59:56 | +0.02 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov R | 21:58 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.09 | +0.65 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 16:54 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.12 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 26:19 | +0.21 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 11:47 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 16:38 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 14:54 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 9:49 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 11:17 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 17:44 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 21:39 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 12:38 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 19:34 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 17:33 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 8:51 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 17:23 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 21:39 | −0.30 | −0.07 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 15:56 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.09 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 16:45 | −0.46 | −0.11 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 58:42 | −0.73 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.