ANA beat CBJ 7–4. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Max Jones scored at 17:23 of the third, moving ANA’s win probability from 51% to 92%. Michael Hutchinson allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:19 | ANA | Trevor Zegras from Ryan Strome, Brock McGinn | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 10:57 | CBJ | Nick Blankenburg from Liam Foudy | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 14:37 | ANA | Scott Harrington from Troy Terry, Simon Benoit | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 19:29 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Johnny Gaudreau, Patrik Laine | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 3:44 | ANA | Maxime Comtois from Derek Grant, Simon Benoit | 2–3 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 16:35 | CBJ | Cole SillingerPP from Kent Johnson, Emil Bemstrom | 3–3 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 2:25 | ANA | Troy Terry from Colton White, Mason McTavish | 3–4 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 6:43 | CBJ | Patrik LainePP from Adam Boqvist, Michael Hutchinson | 4–4 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 17:23 | ANA | Max Jones unassisted | 4–5 | 51% → 92% |
| P3 19:12 | ANA | Scott HarringtonEN unassisted | 4–6 | 96% → 100% |
| P3 19:26 | ANA | Ryan StromeEN unassisted | 4–7 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Sillinger C | 13:42 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.22 | +0.33 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 18:42 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.09 | +0.32 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 19:54 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.16 | −0.16 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 21:10 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.20 | +0.18 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Patrik Laine L | 20:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.12 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kent Johnson C | 12:15 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 13:36 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 17:55 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 22:21 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Bemstrom C | 12:36 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.18 | −0.18 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gavin Bayreuther D | 16:37 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Berni D | 15:46 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam Foudy C | 15:17 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.09 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 9:34 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Pederson C | 13:13 | −0.23 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 18:41 | −0.33 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 16:07 | −0.36 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 19:57 | −0.38 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Hutchinson G | 58:05 | −2.47 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Terry R | 18:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.09 | +0.36 | +0.24 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Scott Harrington D | 17:37 | 2 | +0.46 | +0.04 | +0.46 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Grant C | 16:16 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.13 | |
| Trevor Zegras C | 13:37 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.02 | +0.27 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Maxime Comtois L | 12:11 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.10 | +0.29 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Jones L | 17:07 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.10 | +0.19 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton White D | 17:46 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 12:20 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 15:00 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 20:56 | +0.01 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 18:07 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 24:04 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 17:50 | 2 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 14:03 | 1 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.11 | +0.25 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Mason McTavish C | 18:39 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.22 | −0.37 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 13:29 | −0.17 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 14:18 | −0.23 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 11:54 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 59:49 | +0.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.