TBL beat NJD 4–3 in a shootout. TBL lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 4.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Timo Meier scored on the power play at 17:44 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 9% to 50%. Akira Schmid allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:09 |  TBL | Ross Colton from Mikhail Sergachev, Steven Stamkos | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 8:59 | NJD | Tomas Tatar from Nico Hischier, Dawson Mercer | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 18:11 | TBL | Steven Stamkos from Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Erik Cernak | 2–1 | 47% → 72% |
| P3 9:41 | NJD | Timo Meier from Nico Hischier, Damon Severson | 2–2 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 15:13 | TBL | Steven StamkosPP from Mikhail Sergachev, Nikita Kucherov | 3–2 | 51% → 87% |
| P3 17:44 | NJD | Timo MeierPP from Dougie Hamilton, Jack Hughes | 3–3 | 9% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Colton C | 11:32 | 1 | +1.06 | −0.17 | +0.61 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.65 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 19:10 | +0.60 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.99 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 18:12 | 2 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.34 | +1.37 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.39 |
| Erik Cernak D | 20:46 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 18:56 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 20:27 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 15:11 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 9:08 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 21:56 | −0.16 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 8:29 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 21:55 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.18 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 12:56 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 13:53 | −0.26 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 22:25 | −0.34 | −0.08 | −0.29 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 8:00 | −0.38 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 20:55 | −0.49 | −0.26 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 28:14 | 2 | −0.55 | −0.54 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 15:26 | −0.66 | −0.18 | −0.24 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 65:00 | +1.78 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timo Meier R | 19:18 | 2 | +1.14 | +0.34 | +1.33 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.33 | |
| Tomas Tatar L | 14:05 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.26 | +0.52 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 11:39 | +0.40 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.59 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 16:46 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.22 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 13:45 | +0.31 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 7:45 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 19:04 | +0.09 | +0.39 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 26:55 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.42 | −0.37 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 20:52 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 11:35 | +0.03 | +0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 21:48 | +0.00 | +0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 15:56 | −0.06 | +0.24 | −0.32 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 15:13 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 15:06 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 21:45 | 2 | −0.16 | +0.66 | −0.94 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.00 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 18:51 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.17 | −0.37 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 15:18 | −0.24 | +0.17 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.38 | +0.00 | −0.51 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 24:38 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.24 | −0.49 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid G | 64:36 | −2.01 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.