VGK beat TBL 4–3 in overtime. VGK lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Alec Martinez scored at 3:09 of overtime, moving VGK’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:27 | VGK | Keegan Kolesar from Teddy Blueger, Brett Howden | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 4:28 |  TBL | Brayden Point from Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P3 2:27 | VGK | William KarlssonSH from Alex Pietrangelo | 2–1 | 47% → 73% |
| P3 5:39 | VGK | Chandler StephensonPP from Shea Theodore, Reilly Smith | 3–1 | 77% → 93% |
| P3 17:53 | TBL | Nikita KucherovPP from Mikhail Sergachev, Brayden Point | 3–2 | 1% → 7% |
| P3 19:32 | TBL | Brayden PointPP from Nikita Kucherov, Mikhail Sergachev | 3–3 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 3:09 | VGK | Alec Martinez from Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Martinez D | 21:47 | 1 | +1.01 | −0.01 | +0.80 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 11:24 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.10 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 21:36 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.15 | +0.72 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 | |
| William Karlsson C | 20:46 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.37 | +0.65 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 21:13 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.19 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brett Howden C | 13:30 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Teddy Blueger C | 13:38 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 18:43 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 7:10 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 23:54 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 6:33 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 16:00 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 16:32 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 23:39 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.38 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 17:47 | −0.33 | −0.06 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 7:10 | −0.39 | −0.03 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 17:17 | −0.61 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 22:58 | 1 | −0.80 | −0.30 | −0.51 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 63:09 | +0.58 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point C | 21:20 | 2 | 1 | +1.53 | +0.43 | +1.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 21:25 | 1 | 2 | +0.86 | +0.38 | +0.42 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 26:27 | 2 | +0.57 | +0.49 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Jeannot L | 10:50 | +0.21 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 19:48 | +0.17 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 20:03 | +0.13 | +0.04 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 12:47 | +0.13 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 10:57 | +0.09 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 11:16 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 19:11 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 22:53 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 14:52 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 13:19 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 21:15 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.07 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 19:21 | −0.28 | +0.09 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 9:16 | −0.38 | +0.13 | −0.33 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 9:04 | −0.49 | +0.11 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 22:22 | −0.50 | −0.23 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 61:15 | −1.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.