PIT beat TBL 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (PIT 3.0, TBL 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jason Zucker scored at 2:13 of overtime, moving PIT’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:39 | TBL | Ross Colton from Tanner Jeannot, Mikhail Sergachev | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 6:06 | PIT | Jeff Petry from Sidney Crosby | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 6:31 | PIT | Jeff Petry from Jeff Carter, Danton Heinen | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 9:39 | TBL | Brayden PointPP from Alex Killorn, Mikhail Sergachev | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 15:06 | PIT | Jason Zucker from Marcus Pettersson, Jeff Carter | 3–2 | 48% → 70% |
| P3 0:38 | TBL | Steven StamkosPP from Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy | 3–3 | 32% → 52% |
| P3 6:59 | PIT | Drew O'Connor from Josh Archibald, Kris Letang | 4–3 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 15:50 | TBL | Victor Hedman from Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point | 4–4 | 11% → 51% |
| OT 2:13 | PIT | Jason Zucker from Marcus Pettersson, Rickard Rakell | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Zucker L | 16:05 | 2 | +1.39 | −0.06 | +1.45 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 25:43 | 2 | +0.90 | −0.33 | +1.46 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 8:51 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.01 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jan Rutta D | 15:51 | +0.22 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 17:29 | +0.18 | +0.17 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 16:23 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 16:16 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Drake Caggiula L | 4:01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Archibald R | 11:11 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 18:53 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 19:53 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 20:47 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.26 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 22:52 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.17 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 12:37 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 21:43 | −0.27 | −0.19 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 11:24 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 15:43 | −0.50 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 22:28 | −0.56 | +0.01 | −0.55 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 62:13 | −1.18 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point C | 20:28 | 1 | 1 | +1.25 | +0.14 | +0.81 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.08 |
| Ross Colton C | 8:16 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.00 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 23:26 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.04 | +0.73 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.01 | +0.63 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 22:26 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 21:24 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.21 | −0.50 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 10:31 | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 10:50 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 13:31 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 17:59 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 9:17 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 23:18 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Raddysh D | 11:38 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 14:30 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 24:14 | 2 | −0.19 | +0.14 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Maroon L | 6:51 | −0.32 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 19:03 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 18:59 | −0.38 | +0.17 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 62:13 | −1.54 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.