BUF beat TBL 6–5 in overtime. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 4.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ilya Lyubushkin scored short-handed at 1:41 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 46% to 100%. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 4.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:19 | TBL | Steven Stamkos from Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 11:41 | BUF | Zemgus Girgensons from Rasmus Dahlin, Tyson Jost | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 9:36 | BUF | Tage ThompsonPP from Jeff Skinner, Rasmus Dahlin | 2–1 | 48% → 68% |
| P2 12:20 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Jeff Skinner | 3–1 | 69% → 85% |
| P2 12:36 | TBL | Victor Hedman from Patrick Maroon, Nick Paul | 3–2 | 15% → 31% |
| P2 13:25 | BUF | Jack Quinn from Peyton Krebs, Casey Mittelstadt | 4–2 | 70% → 86% |
| P3 5:48 | TBL | Brayden Point from Victor Hedman, Brandon Hagel | 4–3 | 7% → 24% |
| P3 6:18 | BUF | Tage Thompson unassisted | 5–3 | 77% → 93% |
| P3 8:33 | TBL | Anthony Cirelli from Erik Cernak, Brayden Point | 5–4 | 5% → 21% |
| P3 14:54 | TBL | Ross ColtonPP from Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point | 5–5 | 14% → 51% |
| OT 1:41 | BUF | Ilya LyubushkinSH unassisted | 6–5 | 46% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson C | 17:16 | 3 | +1.97 | −0.28 | +2.26 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 12:26 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.06 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Quinn R | 12:57 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.11 | +0.79 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 17:45 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.18 | +0.76 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 15:21 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Owen Power D | 24:31 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 15:25 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 13:04 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 10:12 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 10:11 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 27:03 | 2 | −0.15 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 14:25 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 16:46 | 2 | −0.19 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 13:16 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 19:03 | −0.26 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 21:54 | −0.38 | −0.12 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 15:07 | −0.39 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 25:04 | −0.70 | −0.48 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Comrie G | 61:41 | −0.75 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point C | 21:36 | 1 | 3 | +1.32 | +0.47 | +0.62 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 18:54 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.00 | +0.85 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 26:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.32 | +0.42 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ross Colton C | 13:15 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.27 | +0.49 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.16 | +0.43 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Ian Cole D | 16:51 | +0.19 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 13:13 | +0.15 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 25:48 | +0.14 | +0.22 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 19:34 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.18 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Maroon L | 11:15 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.21 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 14:02 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.24 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 15:15 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 20:27 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.41 | −0.60 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Perry R | 11:48 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 16:46 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 10:31 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 18:36 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.24 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 10:43 | −0.23 | +0.05 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 61:41 | −4.01 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.