ARI beat TBL 1–0 in a shootout. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 5.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. Connor Ingram saved 5.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos C | 20:52 | +0.40 | +0.34 | −0.62 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.65 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 17:44 | +0.37 | +0.16 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.38 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 12:39 | +0.24 | +0.26 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 28:23 | +0.15 | +0.20 | −0.09 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 26:31 | +0.07 | +0.34 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 9:45 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 8:45 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 15:38 | −0.00 | +0.15 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 18:57 | −0.07 | +0.18 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 16:20 | −0.12 | +0.15 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 21:30 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 7:52 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 20:47 | −0.29 | +0.08 | −0.56 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 15:32 | −0.33 | +0.20 | −0.72 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 18:23 | −0.37 | +0.17 | −0.55 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 11:04 | −0.37 | +0.14 | −0.52 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 20:38 | −0.46 | +0.28 | −0.15 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.51 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 20:22 | −0.68 | +0.23 | −0.58 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.39 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Elliott G | 64:29 | +0.93 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller R | 22:15 | +0.60 | −0.07 | −0.32 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.99 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 23:16 | +0.60 | +0.12 | −0.21 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.65 | ||
| Victor Soderstrom D | 12:30 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 11:54 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 10:25 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 15:43 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 9:08 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 14:09 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 26:10 | −0.23 | −0.17 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 13:52 | −0.26 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 11:51 | −0.28 | −0.12 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 23:06 | −0.30 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 21:41 | −0.49 | −0.26 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 8:12 | −0.52 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 23:28 | −0.57 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 19:10 | −0.63 | −0.07 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.39 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 18:03 | −0.68 | −0.48 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 22:07 | −1.10 | −0.39 | −0.73 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 65:00 | +5.35 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.