TBL beat DAL 3–1. TBL lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Anthony Cirelli scored at 19:16 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 49% to 96%. Andrei Vasilevskiy saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 10:13 |  TBL | Anthony Cirelli from Brandon Hagel, Alex Killorn | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 12:18 |  DAL | Jamie Benn unassisted | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 19:16 | TBL | Anthony Cirelli from Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn | 2–1 | 49% → 96% |
| P3 19:59 | TBL | Brandon HagelEN from Nikita Kucherov, Anthony Cirelli | 3–1 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Cirelli C | 17:35 | 2 | 1 | +1.46 | +0.11 | +1.28 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Ross Colton C | 13:21 | +0.22 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 17:36 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 19:19 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Foote D | 9:21 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 17:29 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.12 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 10:53 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 8:43 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 11:33 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 14:15 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 9:14 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 22:09 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:29 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 11:18 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 20:13 | −0.33 | −0.07 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 25:33 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 22:09 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.12 | −0.32 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 19:53 | 1 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.15 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 59:57 | +1.36 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Benn L | 17:17 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.06 | +0.48 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 14:48 | +0.33 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 18:30 | +0.17 | +0.10 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marián Studenic R | 8:17 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 12:23 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 18:57 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 10:28 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 19:09 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 14:35 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 20:01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 18:22 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 15:11 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 18:45 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Denis Gurianov R | 9:18 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 16:10 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 19:17 | −0.30 | −0.09 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 20:27 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 24:22 | −0.45 | −0.05 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 59:43 | +0.32 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.