VGK beat FLA 4–2. VGK lost the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: William Carrier scored at 17:24 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 51% to 93%. Adin Hill saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:02 | FLA | Nick Cousins from Aaron Ekblad, Eetu Luostarinen | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 4:08 | VGK | Nicolas Roy from Keegan Kolesar | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 12:47 | FLA | Sam ReinhartPP from Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov | 2–1 | 48% → 69% |
| P3 8:37 | VGK | Jack Eichel from Kaedan Korczak | 2–2 | 21% → 52% |
| P3 17:24 | VGK | William Carrier from Keegan Kolesar | 2–3 | 51% → 93% |
| P3 18:53 | VGK | William KarlssonEN unassisted | 2–4 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 17:23 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.19 | −0.19 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 23:55 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 15:36 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.17 | +0.26 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 14:41 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 21:56 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.25 | −0.12 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Eric Staal C | 15:29 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Givani Smith R | 8:23 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 16:12 | −0.08 | +0.17 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Colin White C | 8:20 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 8:52 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 17:36 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Mahura D | 15:53 | −0.16 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 21:03 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 16:09 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 16:06 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 22:49 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 23:05 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 16:02 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.15 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 58:53 | −1.44 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keegan Kolesar R | 11:43 | 2 | +0.46 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.47 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| William Carrier L | 13:57 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.02 | +0.34 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 14:49 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 14:39 | +0.19 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:42 | +0.08 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 3:57 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 17:54 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 20:24 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 22:20 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 13:35 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 10:02 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 12:17 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 16:35 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 23:00 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 20:46 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 15:26 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:34 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 23:42 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 60:00 | +1.79 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.