DET beat TBL 7–4. DET lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Elmer Soderblom scored at 3:48 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 52% to 79%. Brian Elliott allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:29 | TBL | Brayden Point from Nikita Kucherov, Erik Cernak | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 15:34 | DET | Olli Maatta from Pius Suter | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P1 18:38 | TBL | Alex Killorn from Ross Colton, Nick Perbix | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P1 19:32 | DET | Michael Rasmussen from Ben Chiarot, Oskar Sundqvist | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 11:08 | DET | Dylan Larkin from David Perron, Michael Rasmussen | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 13:15 | TBL | Ross Colton unassisted | 3–3 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 3:48 | DET | Elmer Soderblom from Joe Veleno | 3–4 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 9:46 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Michael Rasmussen | 3–5 | 83% → 96% |
| P3 16:13 | TBL | Nikita KucherovPP from Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos | 4–5 | 1% → 10% |
| P3 17:27 | DET | David PerronEN from Dylan Larkin | 4–6 | 92% → 100% |
| P3 18:59 | DET | Michael RasmussenEN from David Perron | 4–7 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov R | 20:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.01 | +0.69 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brayden Point C | 22:38 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.09 | +0.48 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ross Colton C | 11:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.03 | +0.41 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Nick Perbix D | 16:25 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 8:57 | +0.28 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 14:28 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.12 | +0.51 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 21:29 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 14:44 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 12:39 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 17:46 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Foote D | 15:00 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 11:48 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 21:29 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 20:00 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.16 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 17:17 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 15:13 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 9:57 | −0.29 | +0.05 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 20:05 | 1 | −0.63 | −0.07 | −0.59 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Elliott G | 59:06 | −2.63 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Larkin C | 19:10 | 2 | 1 | +1.72 | +0.09 | +1.65 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Elmer Soderblom L | 9:10 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.07 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 18:00 | 2 | 2 | +0.78 | +0.05 | +0.58 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 |
| Olli Maatta D | 17:28 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.06 | +0.83 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Erne L | 13:14 | +0.14 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 21:39 | +0.12 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 11:04 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 21:41 | −0.00 | +0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 12:18 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| David Perron L | 16:06 | 1 | 2 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Moritz Seider D | 23:04 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 12:35 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 17:15 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 19:50 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 13:29 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 13:43 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.08 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Copp C | 15:32 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 11:41 | −0.48 | +0.02 | −0.30 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 60:00 | −0.40 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.