TBL beat DAL 5–4 in overtime. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 4.5 to 3.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Alex Killorn scored at 3:43 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:20 |  TBL | Ross Colton from Vladislav Namestnikov, Philippe Myers | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 14:45 |  DAL | Mason MarchmentPP from Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 4:47 | TBL | Nick PaulPP from Corey Perry, Ross Colton | 1–2 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 8:02 | DAL | Joe PavelskiPP from Miro Heiskanen, Jamie Benn | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 9:57 | DAL | Jason Robertson from Joe Pavelski, Miro Heiskanen | 3–2 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 14:23 | TBL | Steven Stamkos from Ian Cole, Alex Killorn | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 3:55 | TBL | Ian Cole from Nick Paul, Alex Killorn | 3–4 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 15:18 | DAL | Radek FaksaSH unassisted | 4–4 | 10% → 48% |
| OT 3:43 | TBL | Alex Killorn from Mikhail Sergachev, Steven Stamkos | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson L | 17:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.05 | +0.46 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Radek Faksa C | 10:14 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.03 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 16:39 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.06 | +0.50 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 18:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.23 | +0.40 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Luke Glendening C | 13:00 | +0.09 | +0.15 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 19:04 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 18:33 | +0.08 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 14:42 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 17:13 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 10:25 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 18:30 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.05 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 23:20 | −0.24 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 16:39 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 16:21 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Matěj Blümel R | 11:44 | −0.29 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 28:19 | 2 | −0.33 | +0.04 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Lundkvist D | 16:05 | −0.55 | +0.07 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 14:38 | −0.64 | +0.02 | −0.47 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 63:43 | −0.08 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Cole D | 21:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.02 | +0.76 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ross Colton C | 15:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.05 | +0.74 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Steven Stamkos C | 18:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.20 | +0.47 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Alex Killorn L | 15:57 | 1 | 2 | +0.66 | +0.20 | +0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Nick Paul L | 16:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.11 | +0.51 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.08 |
| Victor Hedman D | 27:32 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 25:34 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Haydn Fleury D | 12:41 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 8:45 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 8:04 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cole Koepke L | 8:31 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philippe Myers D | 9:09 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Perry R | 15:35 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 18:08 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 25:11 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.61 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 23:50 | −0.48 | −0.10 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 12:33 | 1 | −0.52 | +0.13 | −0.42 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Brayden Point C | 25:25 | −0.76 | −0.12 | −0.64 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Elliott G | 63:43 | −0.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.