TBL beat BUF 5–3. Expected goals were close to even (BUF 3.0, TBL 3.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Nick Perbix scored at 15:05 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 51% to 89%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:07 |  TBL | Nick Paul from Victor Hedman, Brandon Hagel | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 16:24 | BUF | Zemgus Girgensons from Owen Power, Tage Thompson | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 5:05 | TBL | Brayden PointPP from Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov | 1–2 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 8:34 | BUF | Casey MittelstadtPP from Owen Power, Kyle Okposo | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 4:25 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from Alex Tuch, Dylan Cozens | 3–2 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 7:40 | TBL | Brandon Hagel from Nikita Kucherov | 3–3 | 22% → 52% |
| P3 15:05 | TBL | Nick Perbix from Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel | 3–4 | 51% → 89% |
| P3 19:02 | TBL | Nikita KucherovEN from Brayden Point | 3–5 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:09 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.09 | +0.77 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 14:06 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.03 | +0.71 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Power D | 28:14 | 2 | +0.31 | +0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kale Clague D | 21:14 | +0.17 | +0.22 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 12:27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 18:11 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Casey Fitzgerald D | 6:09 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawrence Pilut D | 10:04 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 22:14 | −0.07 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 12:33 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 18:04 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.07 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 10:31 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 16:34 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 14:47 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 17:34 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.08 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 26:15 | −0.39 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 17:22 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.09 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 17:55 | 1 | −0.64 | +0.03 | −0.44 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Comrie G | 59:37 | −0.27 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Perbix D | 16:49 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.19 | +0.86 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 17:08 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.00 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 18:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.12 | +0.52 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 |
| Brandon Hagel L | 19:11 | 1 | 2 | +0.47 | +0.13 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 24:46 | +0.29 | +0.29 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 11:44 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 11:41 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 19:24 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 21:51 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 12:23 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 22:23 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Maroon L | 10:49 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 17:18 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Corey Perry R | 11:21 | −0.25 | +0.05 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Koepke L | 10:24 | −0.32 | −0.06 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 17:36 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 19:56 | 1 | 3 | −0.42 | +0.22 | −0.52 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Ross Colton C | 11:57 | −0.43 | +0.00 | −0.39 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Elliott G | 60:00 | −0.07 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.