CAR beat TBL 4–3 in a shootout. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 5.5 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brady Skjei scored short-handed at 13:34 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 13% to 47%. Andrei Vasilevskiy saved 2.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:29 | CAR | Seth Jarvis from Paul Stastny | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 5:50 | TBL | Ross ColtonPP from Mikhail Sergachev, Brandon Hagel | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 9:19 | TBL | Nick Paul from Steven Stamkos | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 14:01 | CAR | Martin NecasPP from Brent Burns, Andrei Svechnikov | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 19:00 | TBL | Nikita KucherovPP from Alex Killorn, Brayden Point | 2–3 | 58% → 77% |
| P3 13:34 | CAR | Brady SkjeiSH from Sebastian Aho | 3–3 | 13% → 47% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho C | 23:02 | 1 | +1.08 | +0.53 | −0.32 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.07 | +0.99 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 18:08 | +0.84 | +0.31 | −0.22 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.99 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 20:33 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.19 | +0.79 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Stastny C | 9:23 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.07 | −0.10 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 25:14 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.57 | −0.17 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:47 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 8:36 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 14:36 | −0.06 | +0.22 | −0.17 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 20:31 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.16 | +0.27 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.51 | |
| Calvin de Haan D | 12:03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 14:37 | −0.09 | +0.12 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 22:48 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.49 | −0.30 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.39 | |
| Stefan Noesen R | 11:16 | −0.16 | +0.20 | −0.27 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 25:04 | −0.18 | +0.12 | −0.13 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 16:33 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 16:53 | −0.20 | +0.08 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 15:43 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.05 | +0.27 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.51 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 12:41 | −0.66 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.58 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 65:00 | +1.03 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Colton C | 10:28 | 1 | +1.34 | −0.13 | +0.36 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.99 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 16:57 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Haydn Fleury D | 14:49 | +0.21 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 10:05 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.15 | +0.40 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 18:43 | −0.03 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Foote D | 14:47 | −0.14 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:41 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.10 | −0.17 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.33 | |
| Patrick Maroon L | 9:00 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cole Koepke L | 9:13 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 17:10 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.16 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 29:21 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.25 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 24:31 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.23 | +0.31 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.39 | |
| Ian Cole D | 21:58 | −0.44 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 15:13 | −0.62 | −0.43 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 21:55 | −0.70 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 19:18 | 1 | −0.79 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.51 | |
| Corey Perry R | 11:19 | −0.80 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.51 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 23:17 | 1 | −0.98 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.51 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 65:00 | +2.79 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.