TBL beat OTT 4–3. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nikita Kucherov scored at 17:30 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 51% to 93%. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:44 |  OTT | Dylan Gambrell unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 3:17 | TBL | Mikhail SergachevPP from Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 12:21 | OTT | Mathieu JosephSH unassisted | 2–1 | 42% → 65% |
| P3 11:04 | TBL | Alex Killorn from Steven Stamkos, Nick Paul | 2–2 | 19% → 52% |
| P3 11:44 | OTT | Claude Giroux from Brady Tkachuk | 3–2 | 48% → 82% |
| P3 12:55 | TBL | Brayden Point from Nikita Kucherov, Ian Cole | 3–3 | 16% → 51% |
| P3 17:30 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov from Mikhail Sergachev, Brayden Point | 3–4 | 51% → 93% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Joseph R | 17:26 | 1 | +1.12 | −0.01 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 14:44 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.00 | +0.38 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 23:22 | +0.32 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 7:47 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Brannstrom D | 16:02 | +0.15 | +0.09 | −0.06 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 7:36 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 17:49 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Pinto C | 16:30 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 18:26 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 7:07 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 11:28 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 17:05 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 19:09 | −0.17 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 18:04 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 17:31 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 17:06 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 20:55 | −0.29 | −0.21 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 17:08 | −0.40 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 58:05 | −0.65 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov R | 22:29 | 1 | 2 | +0.69 | +0.20 | +0.34 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Killorn L | 20:34 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.15 | +0.38 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 18:16 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 18:37 | +0.30 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 19:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.12 | +0.18 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Steven Stamkos C | 23:37 | 2 | +0.13 | +0.27 | −0.41 | +0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 25:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.33 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 |
| Corey Perry R | 13:20 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 14:11 | +0.03 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Foote D | 15:26 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 13:28 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 12:24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 4:21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 9:28 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 17:57 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 17:41 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.10 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Koepke L | 10:56 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 16:42 | −0.07 | +0.12 | −0.21 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 59:38 | −1.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.