TBL beat FLA 3–2 in overtime. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brayden Point scored on the power play at 2:08 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 50% to 100%. Andrei Vasilevskiy saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:04 |  TBL | Steven StamkosPP from Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P1 15:48 | FLA | Matthew Tkachuk from Brandon Montour, Gustav Forsling | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 15:37 | FLA | Rudolfs Balcers from Matthew Tkachuk, Brandon Montour | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 9:29 | TBL | Brayden Point from Nikita Kucherov, Mikhail Sergachev | 2–2 | 17% → 48% |
| OT 2:08 | TBL | Brayden PointPP from Steven Stamkos, Corey Perry | 3–2 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point C | 22:44 | 2 | +1.50 | +0.33 | +1.14 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 21:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.14 | +0.50 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 22:50 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Maroon L | 7:51 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philippe Myers D | 10:58 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 15:21 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 23:09 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.36 | −0.67 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 9:48 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cole Koepke L | 5:27 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 26:34 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.20 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 18:57 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 11:39 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 21:49 | −0.14 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 16:43 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 15:19 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 16:33 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 17:19 | −0.43 | −0.14 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 11:50 | −0.50 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 62:08 | +1.51 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 11:33 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.06 | +0.44 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joshua Mahura D | 11:13 | +0.33 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 25:38 | +0.22 | +0.13 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 18:22 | +0.09 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin White C | 10:58 | +0.08 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 21:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.33 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.38 | +0.01 |
| Matt Kiersted D | 8:34 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 22:45 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 23:18 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lomberg L | 5:25 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 13:59 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 17:28 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 6:19 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 20:57 | −0.29 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 11:20 | −0.31 | +0.05 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 22:23 | −0.42 | −0.15 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 22:57 | −0.44 | +0.02 | −0.45 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 20:19 | −1.02 | −0.07 | −0.49 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.38 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 61:42 | +0.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.