BUF beat PHI 4–3. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Vinnie Hinostroza scored at 15:36 of the second, moving BUF’s win probability from 30% to 53%. Martin Jones allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:41 | PHI | Joel Farabee from Bobby Brink, Keith Yandle | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:55 | PHI | Owen Tippett unassisted | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P2 3:17 | BUF | Kyle OkposoPP from Peyton Krebs, Henri Jokiharju | 2–1 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 8:27 | BUF | Rasmus Dahlin from Jeff Skinner, Victor Olofsson | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 14:06 | PHI | Travis Konecny from Noah Cates, Travis Sanheim | 3–2 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 15:36 | BUF | Vinnie Hinostroza from Zemgus Girgensons, Casey Fitzgerald | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 17:58 | BUF | Tage ThompsonPP from Casey Mittelstadt, Rasmus Dahlin | 3–4 | 53% → 76% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Attard D | 13:47 | +0.26 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 15:03 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.16 | +0.37 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Farabee L | 20:43 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.06 | +0.32 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 23:07 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 19:31 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.24 | +0.42 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keith Yandle D | 10:43 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Thompson C | 9:24 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 9:16 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 18:09 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.12 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Laughton C | 16:34 | −0.07 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.06 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 10:03 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 17:08 | −0.14 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Lindblom L | 11:51 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 17:22 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kevin Connauton D | 19:54 | −0.18 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Zamula D | 17:41 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 20:01 | −0.34 | −0.19 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 25:46 | −0.45 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 57:30 | −2.02 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 22:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.21 | +0.42 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kyle Okposo R | 16:34 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.09 | +0.35 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 13:22 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.13 | +0.27 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Owen Power D | 22:59 | +0.31 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 18:23 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.08 | +0.41 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 22:08 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.27 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 14:34 | +0.22 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 14:22 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:35 | +0.20 | +0.24 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 22:45 | +0.17 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 15:30 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 18:58 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.09 | −0.21 | +0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Bjork L | 10:52 | +0.09 | +0.24 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Fitzgerald D | 12:02 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 10:54 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 14:53 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Asplund C | 11:17 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:25 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.24 | −0.24 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 59:54 | −0.78 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.