TBL beat ANA 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (ANA 3.1, TBL 3.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Anthony Cirelli scored at 1:58 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Anthony Stolarz allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:37 | TBL | Ross Colton from Steven Stamkos | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 16:42 | TBL | Alex Killorn from Anthony Cirelli, Erik Cernak | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 3:42 |  ANA | Adam Henrique from Kevin Shattenkirk, Cam Fowler | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 10:19 | ANA | Adam Henrique from Ryan Getzlaf | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 10:41 | ANA | Troy Terry from Andrej Sustr, Ryan Getzlaf | 3–2 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 19:47 | TBL | Nikita KucherovPP from Corey Perry, Steven Stamkos | 3–3 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 1:58 | TBL | Anthony Cirelli from Alex Killorn, Mikhail Sergachev | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Henrique C | 18:43 | 2 | +0.79 | +0.22 | +0.64 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Andrej Sustr D | 19:27 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 23:30 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Drysdale D | 17:34 | +0.15 | +0.30 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 18:34 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.09 | −0.14 | +0.33 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Isac Lundeström C | 13:10 | +0.08 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 10:39 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gerry Mayhew C | 15:16 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 26:15 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 19:24 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 13:47 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Mahura D | 15:05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Simon C | 10:12 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 12:35 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 10:19 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 17:34 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Derek Grant C | 17:17 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 20:33 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.16 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 61:58 | −2.91 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Cirelli C | 17:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.10 | +0.34 | +0.19 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Alex Killorn L | 17:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.09 | +0.37 | +0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 22:37 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.30 | +0.74 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Colton C | 13:11 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.20 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 25:54 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 17:19 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jan Rutta D | 13:48 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 10:44 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 15:49 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 19:50 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 20:11 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 11:50 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 15:39 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 12:59 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Foote D | 11:50 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 23:07 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 15:01 | −0.40 | −0.13 | −0.26 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 20:40 | −0.57 | −0.33 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Elliott G | 29:39 | +2.45 |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 30:41 | −2.00 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.