MTL beat TBL 5–4 in a shootout. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jesse Ylonen scored at 2:18 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 22% to 48%. Brian Elliott allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:57 | TBL | Steven Stamkos from Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 13:32 | TBL | Anthony CirelliSH from Nick Paul | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P2 8:57 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Rem Pitlick | 1–2 | 12% → 27% |
| P2 11:34 | TBL | Nikita KucherovPP from Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn | 1–3 | 75% → 89% |
| P2 13:56 | MTL | Corey Schueneman from Nick Suzuki | 2–3 | 10% → 25% |
| P2 15:50 | MTL | Josh Anderson from Mike Hoffman | 3–3 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 19:44 | TBL | Brayden PointPP from Ondrej Palat, Nikita Kucherov | 3–4 | 53% → 77% |
| P3 2:18 | MTL | Jesse Ylonen from Ryan Poehling, Tyler Pitlick | 4–4 | 22% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:57 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.03 | −0.42 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +1.05 | |
| Jesse Ylonen R | 9:40 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.10 | +0.82 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Corey Schueneman D | 19:19 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.22 | +0.92 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 14:20 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.10 | +0.74 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 19:15 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.03 | +0.44 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 21:01 | +0.10 | +0.14 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 8:20 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jake Evans C | 14:23 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 20:26 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 22:03 | −0.09 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 16:56 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 16:07 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.16 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jordan Harris D | 15:55 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 16:38 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.31 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 9:06 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| David Savard D | 21:10 | −0.34 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 20:15 | −0.56 | −0.26 | −0.33 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Rem Pitlick C | 22:20 | 1 | −0.93 | −0.34 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.36 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 65:00 | +0.99 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Kucherov R | 19:39 | 1 | 2 | +0.52 | +0.20 | +0.60 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.36 |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 18:50 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.16 | +0.38 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Nick Paul L | 14:51 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.18 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.08 | −0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 23:49 | +0.21 | +0.22 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 26:51 | 2 | +0.21 | +0.26 | −0.10 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 21:06 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.47 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 13:49 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 11:54 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 13:58 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 10:40 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 20:38 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Foote D | 14:28 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 17:26 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.26 | −0.37 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 14:08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 10:50 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 16:49 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.48 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.45 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 21:29 | −0.19 | +0.09 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 19:45 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.08 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Elliott G | 65:00 | −1.45 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.