TBL beat CHI 6–3. Expected goals were close to even (TBL 2.6, CHI 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Cal Foote scored at 16:48 of the second, moving TBL’s win probability from 47% to 71%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:51 | CHI | Dylan Strome from Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 1:09 | TBL | Taylor Raddysh from Cal Foote, Mikhail Sergachev | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 6:09 | CHI | Patrick Kane from Brandon Hagel, Seth Jones | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 15:17 | TBL | Victor Hedman from Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 16:48 | TBL | Cal Foote from Anthony Cirelli, Ryan McDonagh | 3–2 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 1:51 | TBL | Victor Hedman from Mikhail Sergachev, Brayden Point | 4–2 | 74% → 90% |
| P3 2:04 | TBL | Corey Perry unassisted | 5–2 | 91% → 98% |
| P3 2:23 | TBL | Mikhail Sergachev from Ross Colton | 6–2 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 7:05 | CHI | Alex DeBrincat from Dylan Strome | 6–3 | 0% → 1% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Hedman D | 25:59 | 2 | +1.57 | +0.02 | +1.52 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cal Foote D | 8:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.06 | +0.75 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Taylor Raddysh R | 9:26 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.07 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 22:04 | 1 | 2 | +0.72 | +0.06 | +0.84 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Corey Perry R | 12:44 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.05 | +0.60 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 19:21 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.09 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 18:59 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 16:56 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 11:27 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 19:09 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 12:57 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 16:26 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 20:19 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 9:57 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 15:42 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Kucherov R | 17:26 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.27 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 22:01 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 15:02 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 59:58 | +0.04 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Kane R | 24:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.07 | +0.51 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Strome C | 22:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.06 | +0.40 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 19:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.07 | +0.48 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Caleb Jones D | 18:38 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 10:29 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 11:29 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 14:06 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 11:25 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 13:50 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 8:35 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 23:55 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.13 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 21:49 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 18:51 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Stillman D | 13:54 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 16:21 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 14:43 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Calvin de Haan D | 17:59 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 14:17 | −0.29 | +0.11 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 60:00 | −3.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.