PIT beat STL 5–3. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sidney Crosby scored at 12:23 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 17% to 53%. Casey DeSmith allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:20 |  STL | Brayden SchennPP from Torey Krug | 1–0 | 48% → 66% |
| P2 8:45 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Vladimir Tarasenko, Justin Faulk | 2–0 | 68% → 84% |
| P2 13:30 | PIT | Bryan RustPP from Evan Rodrigues, Kris Letang | 2–1 | 15% → 30% |
| P2 13:49 | STL | Colton Parayko from Brayden Schenn, Scott Perunovich | 3–1 | 70% → 86% |
| P2 15:46 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel | 3–2 | 13% → 29% |
| P3 12:23 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Jake Guentzel, John Marino | 3–3 | 17% → 53% |
| P3 12:35 | PIT | Evan RodriguesPP from Kris Letang, Bryan Rust | 3–4 | 53% → 85% |
| P3 18:21 | PIT | Brock McGinn from Teddy Blueger | 3–5 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colton Parayko D | 24:25 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.02 | +0.43 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 15:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.08 | +0.20 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 15:03 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.04 | +0.28 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 14:23 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.06 | −0.09 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Scott Perunovich D | 12:51 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Perron L | 16:11 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Brown C | 7:54 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 10:59 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 18:34 | −0.19 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 20:14 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.27 | −0.02 | +0.24 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 15:57 | −0.28 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 9:42 | −0.32 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 17:40 | −0.32 | −0.16 | −0.20 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 17:47 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 20:53 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 17:15 | −0.39 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 20:05 | −0.40 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 17:10 | −0.42 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 58:43 | −1.69 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Rodrigues C | 16:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.22 | +0.23 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.05 |
| Sidney Crosby C | 18:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.13 | +0.36 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Bryan Rust R | 20:34 | 2 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.16 | +0.58 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Kris Letang D | 27:05 | 2 | +0.41 | +0.33 | −0.21 | +0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock McGinn L | 16:06 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.04 | +0.41 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Teddy Blueger C | 15:43 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 20:55 | 2 | +0.22 | +0.12 | −0.21 | +0.31 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 17:16 | +0.16 | +0.22 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 15:44 | +0.14 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 14:43 | +0.06 | +0.26 | −0.04 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 11:46 | +0.06 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 20:58 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 23:54 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 13:58 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 8:54 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kasper Bjorkqvist R | 7:37 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Simon C | 12:15 | −0.09 | +0.12 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 14:54 | −0.13 | +0.21 | −0.22 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 25:55 | +1.03 |
| Casey DeSmith G | 33:49 | −1.86 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.