NYR beat TBL 4–3 in a shootout. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Corey Perry scored on the power play at 18:03 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 8% to 50%. Igor Shesterkin saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:21 | TBL | Steven StamkosPP from Victor Hedman, Ondrej Palat | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 5:30 | NYR | Alexis Lafrenière unassisted | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 14:30 | NYR | Barclay GoodrowSH from Greg McKegg | 2–1 | 46% → 69% |
| P2 17:31 | TBL | Ross Colton from Brayden Point, Alex Killorn | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 13:35 | NYR | Barclay Goodrow from K'Andre Miller, Artemi Panarin | 3–2 | 49% → 84% |
| P3 18:03 | TBL | Corey PerryPP from Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat | 3–3 | 8% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclay Goodrow C | 17:58 | 2 | +1.36 | −0.18 | +1.60 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 22:30 | +0.79 | +0.05 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.09 | +1.05 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 8:47 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.02 | +0.83 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Julien Gauthier R | 6:04 | +0.20 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Libor Hajek D | 11:19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 12:21 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 20:40 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Chytil C | 8:39 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Greg McKegg C | 11:52 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 23:09 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 30:52 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 22:30 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 9:45 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 22:14 | −0.28 | −0.18 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Dryden Hunt L | 13:42 | −0.33 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 22:39 | −0.33 | −0.17 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 26:04 | 1 | −0.61 | −0.28 | −0.22 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.36 | |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 17:21 | −0.73 | −0.02 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 65:00 | +1.28 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Perry R | 13:15 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.14 | +0.68 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ross Colton C | 16:54 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.04 | +0.65 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 20:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.24 | +0.46 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.36 |
| Darren Raddysh D | 7:55 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 25:02 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Nash C | 11:48 | +0.03 | +0.14 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 18:20 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.24 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Andrej Sustr D | 10:52 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 33:27 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.16 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.30 | |
| Boris Katchouk L | 8:17 | −0.04 | +0.10 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Fortier L | 6:32 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 27:09 | −0.12 | +0.12 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 15:59 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 17:27 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 16:13 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 12:27 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 21:50 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.04 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.06 | −0.45 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 22:31 | 1 | −0.56 | −0.01 | −0.36 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Elliott G | 64:17 | −1.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.