TBL beat MTL 5–4 in overtime. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 4.7 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ondrej Palat scored at 0:36 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:46 | MTL | Lukas Vejdemo from Michael Pezzetta, Cedric Paquette | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 11:38 | TBL | Brayden Point from Mathieu Joseph, Victor Hedman | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 14:10 | TBL | Brayden Point from Alex Killorn | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 2:05 | MTL | Rafael Harvey-Pinard from Sami Niku, Corey Schueneman | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 8:11 | TBL | Ross Colton from Steven Stamkos, Corey Perry | 2–3 | 54% → 73% |
| P3 6:11 | MTL | Kale Clague from Cole Caufield, Ryan Poehling | 3–3 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 13:09 | MTL | David Savard unassisted | 4–3 | 49% → 84% |
| P3 19:40 | TBL | Corey PerryPP from Alex Killorn, Brayden Point | 4–4 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 0:36 | TBL | Ondrej Palat from Victor Hedman | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Vejdemo C | 13:01 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.11 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Rafael Harvey-Pinard L | 9:28 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.04 | +0.76 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kale Clague D | 18:09 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.26 | +0.84 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Savard D | 25:08 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.02 | +0.44 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Schueneman D | 11:36 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sami Niku D | 12:59 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 18:30 | −0.11 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Ylonen R | 10:33 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 26:53 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cedric Paquette C | 13:13 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Michael Pezzetta L | 11:10 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.05 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 25:24 | −0.27 | −0.52 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.02 | ||
| Alex Belzile R | 15:06 | −0.28 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 21:09 | −0.32 | −0.12 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 13:37 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.15 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 18:43 | −0.46 | −0.05 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 11:37 | 1 | −0.53 | −0.02 | −0.53 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jake Evans C | 17:36 | −0.71 | −0.31 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 60:22 | −0.36 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point C | 22:10 | 2 | 1 | +1.68 | +0.39 | +1.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 |
| Corey Perry R | 15:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.27 | +0.42 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ondrej Palat L | 16:22 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.24 | +0.39 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Colton C | 13:34 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.00 | +0.43 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Jan Rutta D | 18:49 | +0.19 | +0.21 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 18:15 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 22:06 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 14:18 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 26:43 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.55 | −0.48 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 28:07 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.57 | −0.56 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 24:19 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.21 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 13:05 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Day D | 6:42 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Nash C | 10:05 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Foote D | 10:13 | −0.28 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:15 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.25 | −0.62 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Boris Katchouk L | 8:49 | −0.52 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Fortier L | 7:29 | −0.61 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Maxime Lagace G | 58:10 | −0.43 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.