SEA beat EDM 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (EDM 2.7, SEA 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Colin Blackwell scored at 13:06 of the second, moving SEA’s win probability from 53% to 75%. Stuart Skinner allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:49 |  SEA | Yanni Gourde from Ryan Donato | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:41 | EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 10:38 | SEA | Adam Larsson from Jared McCann, Joonas Donskoi | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 8:12 | EDM | Evan Bouchard from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jesse Puljujarvi | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 13:06 | SEA | Colin Blackwell from Kole Lind, Riley Sheahan | 2–3 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 15:53 | SEA | Alexander Wennberg from Jamie Oleksiak, Mason Appleton | 2–4 | 75% → 90% |
| P3 11:44 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Evan Bouchard, Leon Draisaitl | 3–4 | 3% → 15% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 25:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.10 | +0.35 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.37 | −0.02 |
| Evan Bouchard D | 24:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.11 | +0.41 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 23:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.05 |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 19:39 | 2 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.25 | +0.35 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Markus Niemelainen D | 13:39 | +0.03 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Lagesson D | 16:48 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 12:20 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 22:36 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 11:07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Perlini L | 6:29 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 8:48 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 7:29 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 15:52 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.09 | −0.29 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sceviour C | 11:59 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 25:13 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 22:40 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 9:34 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 16:07 | −0.45 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 58:05 | −2.35 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kole Lind R | 7:23 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Blackwell C | 7:28 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.03 | +0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 19:38 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.05 | +0.35 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 18:58 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joonas Donskoi R | 18:50 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 15:03 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 19:06 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:47 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.32 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.07 | |
| Riley Sheahan C | 11:14 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 19:14 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 21:43 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 14:26 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.17 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 18:16 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 14:54 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 21:48 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.42 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 15:16 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 19:49 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 13:06 | −0.36 | −0.09 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 60:00 | +0.50 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.