ARI beat WPG 1–0. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 1.1 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Antoine Roussel scored at 17:59 of the second, moving ARI’s win probability from 47% to 72%. Karel Vejmelka saved 5.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 17:59 | ARI | Antoine Roussel from Loui Eriksson, Ilya Lyubushkin | 1–0 | 47% → 72% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Roussel L | 12:28 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.01 | +0.36 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Loui Eriksson L | 14:01 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.02 | −0.09 | +0.22 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Liam O'Brien C | 8:14 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 20:53 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 23:58 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 14:11 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 10:07 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Capobianco D | 15:35 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Dzingel C | 13:24 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 16:14 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:53 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dysin Mayo D | 21:59 | −0.24 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Ladd L | 9:22 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 16:49 | −0.29 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 17:53 | −0.33 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Stralman D | 19:00 | −0.34 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 17:28 | −0.43 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 20:23 | −0.50 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | +5.70 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Morrissey D | 22:31 | +0.14 | +0.19 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 19:51 | +0.13 | +0.18 | −0.10 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 15:51 | +0.06 | +0.32 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 17:26 | +0.01 | +0.14 | −0.19 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Dominic Toninato C | 5:26 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kristian Vesalainen L | 4:22 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 16:56 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 4:43 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 20:48 | −0.07 | +0.29 | −0.17 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 22:04 | −0.12 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 19:15 | −0.12 | +0.19 | −0.28 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 20:23 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 14:54 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 22:16 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 14:34 | −0.22 | +0.06 | −0.26 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 13:11 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.22 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 23:29 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 21:51 | −0.45 | −0.05 | −0.31 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 57:40 | −0.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.