FLA beat TBL 5–1. Expected goals were close to even (TBL 2.5, FLA 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Alexander Wennberg scored at 11:44 of the first, moving FLA’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:44 |  FLA | Alexander Wennberg from Gustav Forsling, MacKenzie Weegar | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 3:07 | FLA | Sam BennettPP from Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau | 0–2 | 73% → 86% |
| P2 4:52 |  TBL | Luke Schenn from Yanni Gourde, Barclay Goodrow | 1–2 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 12:54 | FLA | Alexander Wennberg from Frank Vatrano | 1–3 | 75% → 89% |
| P2 14:53 | FLA | Jonathan Huberdeau from Sam Bennett | 1–4 | 90% → 97% |
| P3 13:38 | FLA | Alexander Wennberg from Owen Tippett, Gustav Forsling | 1–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Schenn D | 15:47 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.05 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 25:39 | +0.48 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 17:54 | +0.29 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.07 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 12:30 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitchell Stephens C | 9:21 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| David Savard D | 20:36 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 23:40 | −0.09 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 15:10 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Patrick Maroon L | 14:24 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Thomas D | 15:24 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 13:54 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 19:08 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fredrik Claesson D | 11:44 | −0.25 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 18:44 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 13:27 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 17:24 | −0.40 | +0.10 | −0.50 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 13:48 | −0.43 | −0.02 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 12:44 | 1 | −0.48 | +0.06 | −0.51 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | −2.31 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Wennberg C | 21:21 | 3 | +2.63 | +0.04 | +2.63 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 18:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.91 | −0.11 | +0.64 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.36 | +0.00 |
| Noel Acciari C | 14:38 | +0.43 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.54 | +0.01 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 16:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.03 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.06 |
| Brandon Montour D | 16:52 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 11:50 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 15:06 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 10:56 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Markus Nutivaara D | 16:12 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 20:41 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aleksi Heponiemi C | 13:21 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Gusev L | 12:50 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 17:38 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 20:38 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 22:55 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 17:25 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.14 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 17:34 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lomberg L | 5:31 | −0.83 | −0.08 | −0.37 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 60:00 | +1.54 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.