FLA beat TBL 4–0. Expected goals were close to even (TBL 2.6, FLA 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: MacKenzie Weegar scored at 15:19 of the first, moving FLA’s win probability from 53% to 71%. Chris Driedger saved 2.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:19 | FLA | MacKenzie Weegar from Mason Marchment, Juho Lammikko | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 8:23 | FLA | Juho LammikkoSH unassisted | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P3 2:27 | FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Anthony Duclair, Aleksander Barkov | 0–3 | 92% → 99% |
| P3 14:07 | FLA | Alexander Wennberg from Radko Gudas, Keith Yandle | 0–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Savard D | 20:04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitchell Stephens C | 12:57 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 13:40 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 19:30 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Fredrik Claesson D | 16:18 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 14:25 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 20:52 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Walcott L | 10:03 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 13:38 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Barré-Boulet C | 13:17 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 14:54 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 15:09 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.31 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 18:11 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 13:55 | −0.25 | +0.04 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Gemel Smith C | 11:26 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 16:49 | −0.28 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 24:03 | −0.32 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 19:14 | −0.37 | +0.09 | −0.21 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:00 | −1.21 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juho Lammikko C | 17:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.96 | −0.00 | +0.83 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.06 |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 17:32 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.04 | +0.41 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 16:01 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.04 | +0.42 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 12:36 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 15:25 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.06 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 17:52 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.04 | −0.21 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 19:57 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.34 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.11 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 15:35 | +0.09 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 18:07 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 13:59 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Stralman D | 21:19 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Connauton D | 11:08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 12:11 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Grigori Denisenko L | 13:04 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 14:30 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 14:08 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Markus Nutivaara D | 20:45 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksi Heponiemi C | 17:01 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Driedger G | 60:00 | +2.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.