TBL beat CBJ 4–3 in overtime. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Victor Hedman scored at 0:10 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:50 |  TBL | Ondrej Palat from Brayden Point | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 17:16 | CBJ | Mikhail Grigorenko from Vladislav Gavrikov, Mikko Lehtonen | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P1 19:29 | CBJ | Eric Robinson from Oliver Bjorkstrand, Max Domi | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 6:09 | TBL | Mathieu Joseph from Brayden Point, Ondrej Palat | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 0:55 | CBJ | Eric Robinson from Max Domi, Oliver Bjorkstrand | 3–2 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 2:41 | TBL | Alex Barré-BouletPP from Ondrej Palat, Victor Hedman | 3–3 | 27% → 52% |
| OT 0:10 | TBL | Victor Hedman from Brayden Point | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Robinson L | 17:52 | 2 | +1.74 | +0.15 | +1.60 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mikhail Grigorenko C | 14:13 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.01 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.36 | −0.01 | |
| Mikko Lehtonen D | 19:11 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 20:25 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 18:39 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.12 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Stefan Matteau C | 7:58 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Dunne C | 7:52 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dean Kukan D | 16:05 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan MacInnis C | 8:40 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Del Zotto D | 23:10 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 16:42 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 15:23 | −0.26 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gavin Bayreuther D | 14:04 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Gerbe C | 14:56 | −0.31 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 19:13 | 2 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Atkinson R | 18:40 | −0.33 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 25:56 | −0.48 | −0.37 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 15:34 | −0.58 | −0.24 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.09 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 17:29 | −0.30 |
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 42:41 | −0.60 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Hedman D | 23:57 | 1 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.27 | +0.77 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ondrej Palat L | 19:19 | 1 | 2 | +1.03 | +0.27 | +0.74 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 10:36 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.05 | +0.71 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Barré-Boulet C | 17:51 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.23 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 18:21 | 3 | +0.23 | +0.28 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 21:37 | +0.22 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 18:50 | +0.20 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 13:38 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 16:11 | +0.07 | +0.05 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 16:31 | +0.04 | +0.20 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 9:58 | −0.01 | +0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 11:33 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 15:58 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.43 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 18:36 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.15 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 20:17 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 12:16 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 15:29 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 17:10 | −0.37 | −0.12 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 60:10 | −1.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.