TBL beat CBJ 3–2. TBL lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brayden Point scored at 15:54 of the third, moving TBL’s win probability from 51% to 90%. Andrei Vasilevskiy saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:45 |  TBL | Brayden PointPP from Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman | 0–1 | 57% → 71% |
| P2 9:04 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Eric Robinson, Max Domi | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 10:54 | CBJ | Eric Robinson from Max Domi, Zach Werenski | 2–1 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 14:49 | TBL | Ross Colton from Patrick Maroon, Mathieu Joseph | 2–2 | 14% → 51% |
| P3 15:54 | TBL | Brayden Point from Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson | 2–3 | 51% → 90% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Robinson L | 12:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.28 | +0.28 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Zach Werenski D | 26:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.06 | +0.36 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Max Domi C | 14:32 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.17 | −0.33 | +0.28 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Dean Kukan D | 12:03 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 18:59 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 22:01 | −0.06 | +0.17 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 18:46 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zac Dalpe C | 6:27 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 13:29 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Riley Nash C | 9:06 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 19:48 | −0.11 | +0.18 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 27:37 | −0.12 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Lehtonen D | 12:57 | −0.15 | +0.11 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 16:23 | −0.17 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam Foudy C | 7:32 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 15:53 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 20:53 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.18 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 20:00 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 57:13 | −0.09 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Point C | 18:57 | 2 | +0.91 | +0.04 | +0.76 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Ross Colton C | 11:02 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.15 | +0.38 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.05 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 17:27 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Johnson C | 12:05 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Borgman D | 8:32 | +0.03 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 11:57 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 18:25 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 26:58 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cal Foote D | 15:31 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 13:35 | −0.06 | +0.15 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 18:45 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 16:51 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 11:07 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 24:51 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 13:04 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 14:47 | −0.22 | +0.13 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 25:25 | −0.25 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 16:42 | −0.46 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 59:59 | +1.38 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.