CGY beat VAN 6–5 in overtime. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 4.4 to 3.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Elias Lindholm scored at 3:24 of overtime, moving CGY’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Braden Holtby allowed 3.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:30 | CGY | Josh Leivo unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 5:48 | CGY | Milan Lucic from Josh Leivo, Michael Stone | 2–0 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 7:17 | CGY | Matthew Tkachuk from Elias Lindholm, Johnny Gaudreau | 3–0 | 83% → 94% |
| P2 8:05 | CGY | Andrew Mangiapane from Dillon Dube, Mikael Backlund | 4–0 | 95% → 99% |
| P2 13:21 | VAN | Travis Hamonic from Quinn Hughes | 4–1 | 1% → 4% |
| P2 14:03 | CGY | Andrew Mangiapane from Connor Mackey, Mikael Backlund | 5–1 | 96% → 99% |
| P3 2:30 | VAN | Tyler GraovacPP from J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes | 5–2 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 7:47 | VAN | Brock BoeserPP from Quinn Hughes | 5–3 | 1% → 6% |
| P3 11:28 | VAN | J.T. MillerSH from Jimmy Vesey | 5–4 | 3% → 17% |
| P3 17:58 | VAN | Brock Boeser from Alexander Edler, J.T. Miller | 5–5 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 3:24 | CGY | Elias Lindholm from Juuso Välimäki, Johnny Gaudreau | 6–5 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Leivo L | 13:53 | 1 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.09 | +0.40 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 15:45 | 2 | +0.66 | +0.02 | +0.72 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 18:38 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.31 | −0.00 | +0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Milan Lucic L | 13:18 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.06 | +0.38 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 24:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.10 | +0.41 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 21:04 | 2 | +0.17 | +0.10 | −0.08 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 20:10 | +0.12 | −0.14 | −0.05 | +0.10 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 20:02 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Stone D | 16:01 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Mackey D | 14:20 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.26 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Dominik Simon C | 8:45 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 16:51 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 13:32 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.23 | +0.23 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 20:55 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.15 | +0.16 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 27:00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 19:10 | 2 | −0.20 | +0.18 | −0.29 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Adam Ruzicka C | 9:46 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Brett Ritchie R | 9:54 | −0.30 | −0.12 | −0.15 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 63:24 | +0.42 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Miller C | 22:42 | 1 | 2 | +0.82 | +0.09 | +0.60 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Quinn Hughes D | 23:12 | 3 | +0.62 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.42 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Boeser R | 18:26 | 2 | +0.43 | +0.17 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 26:36 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.07 | +0.30 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Graovac C | 10:18 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.04 | +0.16 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Jimmy Vesey L | 17:24 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Matthew Highmore C | 18:34 | −0.07 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 6:16 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 20:25 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Juolevi D | 12:23 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 13:13 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayce Hawryluk R | 6:35 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 10:41 | −0.17 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 18:25 | −0.17 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 28:45 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 4:55 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 24:23 | −0.33 | +0.09 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.06 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 15:08 | −0.55 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 63:11 | −3.89 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.