TBL beat DET 4–3 in overtime. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Blake Coleman scored at 2:17 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:04 | DET | Adam ErnePP from Filip Zadina, Filip Hronek | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 12:29 | TBL | Brayden PointPP from Ondrej Palat, Victor Hedman | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 13:04 | TBL | Tyler Johnson from Blake Coleman, Erik Cernak | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 6:58 | DET | Patrik Nemeth from Sam Gagner, Vladislav Namestnikov | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 9:04 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Robby Fabbri, Filip Hronek | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 9:40 | TBL | Erik Cernak from Patrick Maroon | 3–3 | 17% → 48% |
| OT 2:17 | TBL | Blake Coleman from Tyler Johnson, Mikhail Sergachev | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Cernak D | 20:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.11 | +0.81 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Johnson C | 12:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.18 | +0.56 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Blake Coleman L | 14:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.16 | +0.68 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brayden Point C | 20:24 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.10 | +0.62 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 19:12 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.23 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 18:56 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 19:30 | +0.10 | +0.14 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 16:58 | +0.08 | +0.11 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 26:16 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.17 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 14:20 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 10:17 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Alex Barré-Boulet C | 10:43 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 11:11 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cal Foote D | 10:24 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 22:51 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 18:16 | −0.32 | +0.19 | −0.49 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 17:53 | −0.48 | +0.17 | −0.64 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Cirelli C | 16:13 | −0.49 | −0.17 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 62:17 | −0.88 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Nemeth D | 16:55 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.09 | +0.92 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Erne L | 14:01 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.07 | +0.60 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 18:54 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.13 | +0.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jon Merrill D | 22:04 | +0.11 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 16:49 | +0.08 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Danny DeKeyser D | 21:15 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathias Brome L | 11:31 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 16:46 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 15:11 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 23:50 | 2 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Zadina R | 15:54 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Bobby Ryan R | 14:27 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 13:06 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Darren Helm C | 13:58 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Djoos D | 15:32 | −0.29 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 18:03 | −0.35 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 16:15 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.30 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Gagner C | 17:12 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.35 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Greiss G | 62:17 | −0.67 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.