CHI beat TBL 4–3 in a shootout. CHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 5.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Dominik Kubalik scored at 6:00 of the third, moving CHI’s win probability from 24% to 52%. Malcolm Subban saved 3.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TBL–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:51 | TBL | Anthony Cirelli from Brayden Point, Ondrej Palat | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 10:27 | TBL | Alex KillornPP from Victor Hedman, Ondrej Palat | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P1 12:57 | CHI | Alex DeBrincatPP from Adam Boqvist, Patrick Kane | 2–1 | 23% → 36% |
| P2 7:18 | CHI | Alex DeBrincat from Patrick Kane | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 3:20 | TBL | Ryan McDonagh from Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson | 3–2 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 6:00 | CHI | Dominik Kubalik from Duncan Keith, Adam Boqvist | 3–3 | 24% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan McDonagh D | 24:57 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.62 | +0.25 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Cirelli C | 19:11 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.21 | +0.46 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Cernak D | 20:51 | +0.61 | +0.41 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 18:42 | +0.58 | +0.40 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 19:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.29 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Cal Foote D | 10:45 | +0.09 | +0.15 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 13:39 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 18:48 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.41 | −0.64 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 16:04 | −0.17 | +0.08 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexander Volkov R | 7:39 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 9:07 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Victor Hedman D | 29:59 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.26 | −0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Patrick Maroon L | 9:17 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 22:37 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 14:37 | −0.29 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 9:54 | −0.33 | +0.06 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 21:02 | −0.34 | +0.36 | −0.30 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.49 | ||
| Brayden Point C | 21:43 | 1 | −0.84 | +0.39 | −1.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.38 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Curtis McElhinney G | 65:00 | −0.88 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipp Kurashev C | 12:48 | +0.95 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +1.01 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 22:13 | 2 | +0.54 | −0.68 | +1.53 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Pius Suter C | 16:50 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 17:11 | +0.19 | +0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 13:15 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Lucas Wallmark C | 8:55 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 12:29 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Highmore C | 5:43 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 25:29 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 15:53 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.39 | +0.53 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 21:08 | −0.31 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 19:28 | 2 | −0.34 | −0.33 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Mitchell D | 14:26 | −0.40 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 13:15 | −0.44 | −0.19 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Duncan Keith D | 25:59 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.24 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Kampf C | 17:14 | −0.54 | −0.21 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Carl Soderberg C | 21:32 | −0.79 | −0.64 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 23:10 | 2 | −1.21 | −0.32 | −0.54 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Subban G | 64:41 | +3.17 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.