EDM beat OTT 3–1. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Tyler Ennis scored at 6:09 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 48% to 77%. Mike Smith saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:33 | OTT | Evgenii Dadonov unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 15:11 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Dominik Kahun | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 6:09 | EDM | Tyler Ennis from William Lagesson, Leon Draisaitl | 2–1 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 18:50 | EDM | Josh ArchibaldEN from Connor McDavid | 3–1 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Ennis R | 13:26 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.15 | +0.39 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 23:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.23 | +0.25 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Dominik Kahun C | 13:20 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Lagesson D | 16:05 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 15:57 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.09 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 20:09 | +0.08 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 22:28 | +0.07 | +0.29 | −0.26 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 21:48 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.17 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 17:10 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jujhar Khaira L | 14:34 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Josh Archibald R | 15:11 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Russell D | 16:54 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 0:33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 25:25 | −0.07 | +0.16 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 16:58 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Turris C | 10:05 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| James Neal L | 12:29 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 19:52 | −0.17 | +0.14 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Smith G | 60:00 | +1.52 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 17:26 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.07 | +0.26 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 19:17 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 13:34 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 5:59 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 18:57 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 12:22 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 18:56 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 12:51 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 15:06 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 18:38 | −0.21 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 19:40 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin White C | 14:22 | −0.26 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 18:10 | −0.29 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 15:07 | −0.30 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 15:44 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 15:02 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 25:17 | −0.46 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 17:25 | −0.53 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 58:11 | +1.22 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.