TBL beat OTT 4–3 in overtime. TBL also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Anthony Cirelli scored short-handed at 4:41 of overtime, moving TBL’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–TBL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:27 | TBL | Nikita Kucherov unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 11:05 |  OTT | Mark BorowieckiPP from Chris Tierney, Vladislav Namestnikov | 1–1 | 30% → 46% |
| P1 17:22 | TBL | Cedric Paquette from Yanni Gourde, Patrick Maroon | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 3:32 | TBL | Brayden Point from Steven Stamkos | 1–3 | 72% → 87% |
| P2 4:01 | OTT | Connor BrownSH from Erik Brannstrom, Chris Tierney | 2–3 | 13% → 28% |
| P2 15:46 | OTT | Anthony DuclairSH unassisted | 3–3 | 24% → 47% |
| OT 4:41 | TBL | Anthony CirelliSH from Brayden Point | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Brown R | 22:18 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.04 | +0.68 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 18:06 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.25 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Borowiecki D | 18:18 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.11 | +0.39 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Tierney C | 15:04 | 2 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 22:58 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 18:12 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ron Hainsey D | 26:12 | −0.14 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Goloubef D | 10:09 | −0.17 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Anisimov C | 13:40 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Andreas Englund D | 7:27 | −0.22 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Brown C | 12:57 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin White C | 12:50 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 13:26 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 14:39 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.C. Beaudin C | 11:17 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.23 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 14:51 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 21:49 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 37:50 | −0.67 | −0.31 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Hogberg G | 64:41 | +0.34 |
TBL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Cirelli C | 21:20 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.26 | +0.62 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Point C | 18:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.22 | +0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Cedric Paquette C | 14:54 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.16 | +0.31 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nikita Kucherov R | 13:01 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.02 | +0.31 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 13:46 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.23 | −0.14 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 25:36 | +0.23 | +0.31 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 11:59 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Hedman D | 24:18 | +0.17 | +0.21 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 18:20 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.14 | −0.21 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 16:21 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 7:59 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Cernak D | 19:52 | +0.02 | +0.24 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 19:38 | −0.03 | +0.17 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 18:52 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 18:49 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.22 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 14:52 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 19:14 | −0.23 | +0.11 | −0.38 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 8:34 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy G | 64:41 | −0.55 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.